Gamifying Common Sense & Bayesian Statistics

If you hear hoofbeats, think horses before zebras before unicorns. But if you also hear the distinct barking sound made by zebras, update your first guess. In general terms, make the most simple guess in the light of all available evidence. If necessary, seek additional evidence for and against your hypothesis and its alternatives.

Bayesian Statistics clarifies and quantifies these fundamental principles of common sense and scientific reasoning using Bayes' rule, a famous mathematical theorem named after its discoverer Thomas Bayes (1702-1761).

In our last seminar, we discovered that Bayes' rule can be cleverly visualized and successfully integrated into a popular social deduction game known as "Werewolf," "Mafia," or "Among Us." In this seminar, we'll further explore and playtest the possibilities together.

No prior knowledge is necessary, but if you'd like to challenge yourself in advance, try and see: Can you solve the false positive riddle?.

This meetup is free of charge or any other financial interest. For obvious reasons, however, everyone must purchase a drink from our host "Be Happy" Café.