SPE NCS Luncheon: US Deepwater in a New Policy and Technology Environment

The US offshore space has in many ways come full circle since the price crash that rattled the industry a decade ago. Three new floating production units (FPU) are slated to begin operation in 2025 alone, with the potential to drive US deepwater output to an all-time high of nearly 2.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026. The industry is also likely to see gains on the regulatory front, with the Department of Interior set to embark on an ambitious 15-year offshore leasing schedule beginning in December 2025.

Yet, the longer-term outlook for conventional oil and gas at large is decidedly cloudier. Global conventional discovered volumes have continuously fallen over the past decade-and-a-half and dwindled to 6.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, nearly 90% lower than discovered volumes in 2010. The US deepwater space is no exception to this trend, and while year-to-date discoveries in 2025 suggest a slight uptick from 2024, the long-term downturn in discoveries begs the question of how much running room the basin has left.

Guest: Thomas Liles,
Senior Vice President of Upstream Research
Rystad Energy

In this talk, Thomas will present Rystad Energy’s outlook for the US deepwater space. While significant incremental production growth seems improbable based on the current pipeline of discoveries, the US Gulf will still likely remain the second largest deepwater oil-producing region through the mid-2030s, second only to South America. Recent technical innovations could entail additional upside. The industry cracked the high-pressure/high-temperature code with the startup of the Anchor project in 2024, and the next five years will see significant new commissioning activity of FPU-based projects targeting more challenging Lower Tertiary reservoirs. Beyond 2030, meaningful growth potential will hinge not only on regularity of leasing, but also on continued application of advanced seismic imaging and industry appetite to progress new discoveries in less conventional pressure-temperature regimes.
Thomas Liles is a Senior Vice President of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, where he serves as product manager for the Gulf of America solution. Currently based in Washington, DC, Thomas joined Rystad in 2015 as one of the first analysts in the company’s Moscow office and has broad experience in global and North American upstream analysis, regularly publishing and speaking on issues ranging from well productivity and asset valuation to policy. Thomas holds an M.A. from Harvard University's Graduate School of Arts and Sciences and a B.A. from the University of North Carolina at Greensboro.

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