pre-election AW!

Hello progressives! The election looms & we're all feeling queasy. The stakes are high: war, global heating, reproductive rights, economic inequality, immigration, the future or finish of American democracy are on the ballot. Many of us have phonebanked, talked to friends & relatives, posted online, contributed money to candidates and organizations. And now it's down to the wire. To help us cope, the Progressive Caucus is hosting an after-work meetup to eat, drink & share thoughts about the campaign and the election and progressive change. We'll do it in two parts: a social hour & then a special “Win or lose” hybrid presentation by PC co-chair Eero Carroll. Hope you can make it!
Win or lose? Parsing the latest prognoses by political scientists
If you’re desperate to know the outcome of the November elections — and who isn’t? — the Progressive Caucus will try to provide answers, based on the best available prognoses by political scientists who do it for a living, as reported in the latest special pre-election issue of the journal Political Science and Politics. Eero Carroll will give a brief overview of two models that have consistently predicted outcomes in previous elections: Helmut Norporth’s “Primary Model” and Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model. After we go through predictions for the Presidential, House and Senate races, we'll take up other relevant topics, including our last-days push for victory.

Mike
Eero