Rethinking the global order in the age of American retrenchment

[This is not an FCCT-organized event.
Free and open to all. Food and beverages will be provided.]

The Trump administration has upended the international order that underpinned global stability, trade and diplomacy, calling into question the United States’ commitment to multilateralism, institutional cooperation and a rules-based framework. Trump is steering and accelerating America’s dramatic inward turn through the unilateral imposition of tariffs on trade allies and rivals alike; the withdrawal of funding commitments and diplomatic support for multilateral institutions like the UN and WHO; a more transactional approach to foreign policy that has found the White House closer to the likes of Putin and Bukele and the dismantling of government agencies that are critical to promote open society and the rule of law domestically and internationally

America is less predictable, more conditional and less committed. This presents an urgent question: as America withdraws, what comes next -- and who steps in?

Nowhere is the transforming global order more acutely felt than in Southeast Asia, a region facing astronomically high US reciprocal tariff rates. As a region pushed and pulled by great power competition and complex interdependence, Southeast Asia finds itself navigating between its growing economic reliance on China and its security partnerships with the U.S. and other (hitherto) US-allied western powers.

America’s withdrawal and the ensuing polarization between the US and China raises critical questions for Southeast Asian countries, operating as a regional bloc under ASEAN or under ASEAN-adjacent groupings that may include other countries:

• Can they develop strategic coherence and autonomy in the absence of a strong American security umbrella to insulate themselves from the headwinds created by the erosion of US reliability? How should they hedge against the intensifying polarization in the US-China rivalry?
• What is the future of free market economic policies and trade norms that America is now retreating from? What is the impact of this consequential geopolitical realignment to democratization efforts in the region?
• Are middle powers in the region -- such as Indonesia and Malaysia in the global economy, Vietnam in manufacturing and supply chains and Singapore in financial services -- positioned to take on a more assertive leadership roles in multilateral spaces? Within the region, can middle powers do more to resolve conflicts and crises such as the civil war in Myanmar and the South China Sea dispute?

The answers to these and other questions have implications for regional peace and prosperity, the future architecture of international cooperation and the trajectory of democracy in Asia and globally.

A panel of experts will address these questions.

Speakers:

Binaifer Nowrojee, president, Open Society Foundations.

Risa Hontiveros, senator, the Philippines.

Shannon Teoh, Malaysia bureau chief, The Strait Times.

Dino Patti Djalal, founder, Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia.

Fuadi Pitsuwan, president, Surin Pitsuwan Foundation and a visiting fellow at the School for Public Policy of Chiang Mai University.

Moderator: Phil Robertson, FCCT board member.