Iran: Strategy, Sanctions, Negotiations, and Power

This week’s discussion looks at Iran without tropes, slogans, or predictable moral positioning.

Iran today is at a geopolitical inflection point — facing deep economic strain, widespread domestic unrest, stalled diplomacy with the United States, a significant regional role, and renewed power alignments with Russia and China. We are not here to repeat talking points, defend geopolitical orthodoxies, or feel morally validated. We are here to understand power, interests, history, law, incentives, and consequences as they actually are — not as they are marketed.

Topics We Will Examine

1. Sanctions, Economy, and Domestic Pressure
   Why continued sanctions have shaped Iran’s internal politics and economic crisis, how inflation and public dissatisfaction interact with state legitimacy, and what domestic pressures mean for strategic posture.
2. Nuclear Negotiations and Strategic Posture
   What the current talks reveal about incentives on both sides, where they are stuck, and how nuclear policy functions as leverage rather than merely a weapons issue.
3. Regional Security and Proxy Strategy
   Iran’s role in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and its deterrence strategy; how regional proxies fit into Tehran’s broader objectives and how Western, Gulf, and Israeli policies interact with these dynamics.
4. Great Power Dynamics: Russia, China, and the West
   How Iran’s strategic ties with Russia and China alter balance-of-power calculations in West Asia, and how Europe and the U.S. are adjusting policy in response.
5. Geopolitical Signals vs Reality
   U.S. military posture in the Gulf, Iranian military exercises near chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, and what these movements signal about escalation risks versus diplomatic incentives.

What Makes This Discussion Different

– We focus on sovereignty, incentives, and strategic consequence — not left-right moral theater
– We prioritize nuance over noise and context over tribal narratives
– We welcome participants with lived experience and language strengths (including Farsi)
– We challenge received wisdom whether it comes from Western media groupthink or simplistic anti-West tropes

This is not pro-Iran or anti-Iran. This is about understanding why actors behave as they do and how global order is shaped in practice.

Boundaries

Speak to ideas, history, strategy, and law — not personalities or identity. Critique systems, not individuals. Expect strong disagreement; intellectual laziness will be called out.

Languages: English and French by default. Farsi, Dutch, Spanish, Arabic and Italian are supported.

Location & RSVP

Ixelles, public bar; exact venue shared with confirmed attendees via WhatsApp:

https://chat.whatsapp.com/LX7UkWGZ3UdLQWLBvNdezN

Accountability and rigorous discussion are the point — not performance or talking points.