HEY WE ARE STARTING A PROBABILITY CULT DO YOU WANNA JOIN??? 😂😹🤣

Fascinated by the Monty Hall problem several years ago, I studied it in some detail and built it into a moguro taiji (whac-a-mole) game. While examining it closely, I was startled by the unreasonable effectiveness of probability (😉). If we knew the probability of a thing, we didn't need to know anything else except that we could keep doing this thing and expect predictability.

Any sane person would have thought, cool, and moved on. Not I. I'm not sane. I'm an artist. I wondered, is there some manner of overlap between probability and that disgusting naive positive-vibes-only live-love-laugh shit that I hate with such demented passion?

Could I not leave out selected parts of probability or highlight specific aspects to mislead people into thinking that it's a moderately easy ticket to whatever utopia they have in their heads? The exploitation of hope based on a fully mathematical foundation, maliciously told. (DOES THIS SOUND LIKE THE AI HYPE TO YOU????????)

Then I thought, is this enough to start a Bayesian cult with?

Then layoffs happened and my landlord wanted me to move out and Migrationsverket also chipped in with annoyance and some other crap so I couldn't focus on these plans to become an evil maths villain.

But now I have a little more headspace we can maybe talk about this. Join me to praise and exalt the amazingness of probability and statistics and to think about whether or not we can turn it into a horrible cult that we will indubitably come to regret.

Keep in mind I've not thought this through AT ALL. As is my way. As is the Bayesian way! The only way to success is to seek information and to update our priors along the way.

See, it's working already. Not even gonna suggest that information can be bad. Oops, did I just? Please ignore that.

That's why it's called stochastic gradient descent. Into madness! It only gets worse from here. We're digging our own graves.

Also, I don't know fuckall about probability and statistics. I'm totally winging it.

Agenda

1. Bring your favourite distribution! Tell us why you love it and why is it the beta distribution? 😂

2. Is it really possible to use probability to improve lives?

3. How can we craft the propaganda so people go mad over it?

4. This could turn out to be random people talking nonsense so please drop all expectations.

Cult material

You don't have to but if you have too much time on your hands and have no other meaning in your life, check out some of our sacred texts below.

Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way

Khan Academy: statistics and probability

Venue

Usually few or nobody comes to my events. I don't want to make a wasted trip anywhere. So, please do not just register on meetup. If you are really, really coming, text me directly to tell me. Then we can figure out a venue.

I have special needs so I prefer somewhere relatively quiet, preferably my place or neighbourhood in Brommaplan. Back room of Kallarbyn was ok too although sometimes it gets distractingly loud (for me).

I will come out if at least one person wants to do this. Else I will be lazing comfortably at home, thank you very much.

Hope to see you!