Thursday, January 1, 2009 1:16 PM
Hello everyone?.Happy New Year! I do hope you?re all enjoying the holidays.
I wanted to send out a reminder that our January Option Users Group meeting is being held January 17th (Saturday) from 9-11:30 AM at the Sheraton East Hartford, CT. Our topic during this session will be on Option Spreads?we?ll define them, describe the different types available, and then focus on a few best suited for our current market environment?in subsequent sessions (probably the next 4-6 months) we?ll describe other Spread Strategies, when and how to use them, and finally, how to monitor them when active?I think you?ll quickly find almost all of the successful option traders use Spread Trades as the primary component to execute their trading plans. In that regard, these upcoming sessions will be very important to attend if you?re serious about improving your trading results?I used these strategies to secure a 48% return from Sept thru Dec 08 (over 150% annualized) showcasing these trades as they happened during our monthly meetings.
You can?t solely rely on others to guide your trading success?.you?ll go broke doing that?.I clipped a couple of major market calls made last year for your review?.each of them was made by a ?professional? who gets paid lots of $$$$ to recommend stock trades?.take a look at their comments below:
1. "GM has bottomed ? GM is a buy here."
Feb. 18, 2008; - Jim Cramer, video-based analyst, or so he says.
2. "Investors can now buy bank stocks at their cheapest levels in almost two decades ? the last time an opportunity of this nature existed to buy bank stocks this cheap was in 1990 ?. the next time will be in 20 years. This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity."
March 10, 2008; - Dick Bove, a formerly brilliant analyst at Punk Ziegel. The banking ETF, the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF), is down 54% since this prediction.
3. "Bear Stearns is a buy at these levels, and we are buying."
Friday, March 14, 2008; -Bill Miller of the Legg Mason Value Fund (LMVFX), not an analyst but a money manager, clearly does little or no analysis. He bought when Bear Stearns hit around $30. On Monday, March 17 -- St. Patrick?s Day -- the company was acquired for $2 a share. He went on to loose almost 2 Billion?that is with a capital B!
4. "Successful efforts by authorities to restore liquidity and the orderly functioning of financial markets, along with the massive amount of policy stimulus that has already?? been applied ... are expected to lead to a modest recovery in the U.S. economy in the second half of the year."
March 20, 2008; -Larry Kantor, resident genius and head of research at Barclays Capital.
5. "Chinese growth will be 9.4% in 2008."
April 1, 2008; -The World Bank. Who cares, there are still a billion and a half of them, right? Gotta buy something, right? "Oops, Chinese growth in 2008 will end up at 7.5%." Same guys at the World Bank working 20 hours a week in between first-class flights home.
6. "Power is the place to be -- I like Foster Wheeler right here."
April 7, 2008; -Jim, "you're the (wrong) man" Cramer, the Merlin of people looking for tax losses, when Foster Wheeler (FWLT) was at $62. It is down 60% from this insightful analysis.
7. "We are buying more of Freddie Mac, we bought another 30 million shares."
September 2008; -Bill Miller, Legg Mason Value Fund ? no analysis again. One week later you and I -- through our servant Hank Paulson -- took over Freddie (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM). Rmember Bill from # 3 above?his combined investments in FRE and FNM lost 2 Billion..brilliant move?and this guy had a great track record leading up to this trade.
8. "Our forecast is $200 a barrel for U.S. crude oil ? .strong fundamentals were a more important factor than a strengthening dollar."
Aug. 20, 2008; -Goldman Sachs (GS). Well, they only missed it by a $160 a barrel -- matches the rest of their performance this year. "Oops, sorry, oil will be $70 a barrel by year-end. And it could hit $50," said the same group of geniuses only two and half months later in October 2008?.I think they?re still off.
9. "Tangible equity means nothing in valuing bank stocks."
December 2008; -Dick Bove again, in response (I think) to a blog showing (and proving) a huge amount of core tangible equity at Citigroup (C) is deferred tax assets -- profits to be realized in the future. This quote is the equivalent of saying the quality and amount of cheese and dough have nothing to do with the quality of a pizza.
If you followed these guys you?d be broke, or close to it?guess what, many people did and ARE broke. Learn to ignore the ?talking heads??for every one that says ?we?re going more bullish?, I?ll send you some that are saying ?we?re going more bearish?. I feel predictions are like fortune cookies; - they aren?t worth the cookie they?re packaged in?the only one who is going to put money into your account is YOU. Remember the motto of our Option Users Group; -Learn, Practice, Do?if you learn the techniques we discuss at our meetings and then put them into practice, I can almost guarantee you better results?.at the end of the trading day the only thing that really matters is the price chart!! You need a trading plan, don?t bet the bank and follow that price chart!!
Shortly I will send out an agenda for our Jan 17th meeting plus a review of some potential trades. If you plan on attending, be prepared to bring at least one stock you?re following so we can discuss a potential trade strategy. You should also be ready to defend or support your pick. Also those of you that are not recieveing my e-mails outside of this meetup.com e-mailer, then I strongly encourage you to send me your direct e-mail address so that you can recieve the graphic chart images included in my e-mails...my e-mail is [address removed]
Until then, enjoy the holidays.