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AZ market update - the imbalance due to low supply

From: Barbara J.
Sent on: Thursday, July 11, 2013 8:39 AM

Greetings all market demand for listings is up...demand is not our problem, as homes attractively priced are selling quickly as demonstrated by an average of 66 days on the market. Our issue is low supply and the imbalance between the two is clearly reflected by continued price appreciation. The monthly median sales price rose 2.9% from $175,000 to $180,000. The year-over-year increase in the median sales price for all ARMLS sold listings showed a dramatic 27.7% increase. The median sales price is $39,000 higher than last year at this time, up from $141,000.

The average sales price for June was $236,954 which is down from $237,000 in May. The mod-est decline in the average price in June is not indicative of softening prices, but instead is re-flective of fewer sales on the high end. With the current shortage of supply, 19,511 listings in total, upward pricing pressure will continue.

ARMLS is currently showing 15,725 Active and 3,786 UCB listings, 30,000 total active listings is considered typical. UCB listings are down 45% to 3,186 from 6,859 this time last year, which is a significant change. UCB listings are comprised almost entirely of short sales. Pair dwindling short sale numbers with active notices declining 55% year-over-year(17,910 to 8,027) and we have a rapidly declining distressed inventory. While distressed sales still account for 21.5% of our total sales, one year ago they accounted for 46.8%. ARMLS defines distressed sales as a combination of short and REO. If we look at the median price by category in June, the median price for a normal sale was $210,000 and the distressed median was $142,000.

As the level of distress continues to decline in our marketplace, prices will gravitate to the higher price point. New inventory in June was at 9,246 compared to 9,271 a year ago. With the current shortage of supply, and no significant changes coming with new inventory, upward pricing appreciation is inevitable. The Pending Price Index projects an increase in July in both the average and median sales prices.


If you want to increase your cash you may want to think about listing one of your properties think  about listing on MLS, send me the  address and I will comp for you and yes I give investor rates for listings!


P.S. don't forget to RSVP for the Aug meeting, July was standing room only so make sure you claim your seat!

Best regards,

Barbara Johnson

Geneva Real Estate & Investments



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