Bi-Weekly Discussion - The "Israel Lobby" & U.S. Foreign Policy

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link above at the scheduled date/time to log in...

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THE "ISRAEL LOBBY" AND U.S. FOREIGN POLICY:
DOES ISRAEL HAVE UNDUE INFLUENCE ON AMERICA'S ACTIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

INTRODUCTION:

In this meetup, we'll discuss the renewed debate over Israel's influence on U.S. foreign policy - specifically in the Middle East - that has arisen amid the joint U.S. & Israeli strikes on Iran that began on Feb. 28. As some folks will know, there was a similar debate in the wake of John Mearsheimer & Stephen Walt's book The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (2007) over whether pro-Israel lobbying played a significant role in the Bush administrations to invade Iraq. Instead of linking several short videos under each section, I'm just asking our members to watch this two-hour-long debate between the journalists Coleman Hughes and Glenn Greenwald that happened on Coleman's podcast back on March 25:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEvJQoowZUI

For those who have difficulty remembering all the points that were made in the debate, Coleman Hughes had a follow-up article released shortly after entitled "The Myth of the All-Powerful Israel Lobby". Glenn Greenwald reacted negatively to this article in a tweet on X, calling it a "lengthy screed... where you to try re-cast all my arguments into something they weren't." I'll let our member decide for themselves whether Coleman's characterization of Glenn's arguments was fair or not.

NOTE: We won't have the time to review all the points made by Stephen Walt & John Mearsheimer in their 2007 book, but you can get a general sense of their book's major points from an article they wrote for the London Review of Books entitled "The Israel Lobby". There's a 2008 article at the Brookings Institution by Itamar Rabinovich entitled "Testing the 'Israel Lobby' Hypothesis" that does a decent job summarizing the ensuing debate over Walt & Mearsheimer's book. However, I was fairly impressed the Wikipedia entry for "Israel lobby in the United States" which was both fairly comprehensive and fairly neutral given the heat this topic usually generates.

In this first section of this meetup, we'll discuss the historical origins of the U.S. "special relationship" with Israel during the Cold War. This is something that Hughes and Greenwald only briefly touched upon in their debate (i.e. Greenwald mentioned Barry Goldwater and Richard Nixon complaining about the power for the Israeli lobby), but it's important for those who seek to understand the evolution of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. We'll look at the debates over whether the shift towards Israel in U.S. foreign policy during the 1960s was more the result of Israeli lobbying pressure on U.S. politicians, organic shifts in U.S. public opinion about Israel among both Jews & Christians (esp. the rise of evangelical Christian Zionists), or shifts in perceptions among national security strategists about reliable allies & emerging adversaries in the Middle East amid the rise of Arab socialism and the Israeli victories in the Six Day War (1967) and Yom Kippur War (1973).

In the second section, we'll discuss various different ways of measuring the power of the pro-Israel lobby versus other major lobbies that affect U.S. foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East (i.e. Arab lobby, Big Oil, and the U.S. defense contractors). We'll also compare U.S. foreign aid to Israel vis-a-vis other major allies (e.g. Gulf Arab states, Germany, Ukraine, South Korea, Japan) to see if the aid Israel receives from the U.S. is truly exceptional or fairly ordinary. Another point of contention is how widely or narrowly to interpret the term "lobby" - i.e. are we talking about a narrow "pro-Israel lobby" composed of a few special interest groups or a broader "pro-Israel constituency" in the U.S.?

In the third section, we'll discuss what we know about the role of Israeli intelligence and then-Israeli PM Ariel Sharon advising the Bush administration in the lead-up to the invasion of Iraq in March 2003. We'll compare this to other factors behind the Iraq invasion like overblown fears about various Muslim leaders having connections with Al-Qaeda in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, regrets about not removing Saddam Hussein during the Gulf War, concerns about covert WMD development based on Saddam's evasive handling of UN weapons inspections, revenge for the alleged Iraqi plot to kill George H.W. Bush, optimism about nation-building in Iraq after taking out Saddam after the success of the UN peacekeeping operation in the former Yugoslavia after taking out Slobodan Milosevic, etc.

In the fourth section, we'll discuss the ongoing debate over the role of Israeli intelligence and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu influencing the Trump administration's decision to launch air strikes on Iran in June 2025 & Feb. 2026. We'll compare this to other possible factors behind the Iran strike like Trump's long-standing stated desire for strikes on Iran going back to the 1980s, revenge for the alleged Iranian plot to kill Trump, optimism from easily capturing Nicolas Maduro and forcing a mild regime change in Venezuela, the huge protests in Iran in Dec. 2025 to Jan. 2026 that made it look like the regime was about to fall, etc.

You'll notice that I've broken out some articles in the 4th section that address some of the conspiracy theories that Hughes & Greenwald discussed. This is related to the last section of the debate where they talked about Greenwald's media relationship with Tucker Carlson & his promotion of various conspiracy theories - and why it doesn't bother Greenwald. This is the sort of stuff I used to analyze in more depth when I ran Skeptics discussions concurrently with the Philly Political Agnostics discussions. Unfortunately, I've found that unpacking conspiracy theories requires a special analytical toolkit, to which I dedicated a regular meetup entitled "Evaluating Conspiracy Theories". When people don't have that toolkit, debates on conspiracy theories tend to degenerate quickly into fallacious reasoning and ad hominem attacks. If we have some extra time to cover this material, we may touch upon it briefly.

RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

In Oct. 2023, we had a meetup entitled "Should the U.S. Support Israel?" where we covered the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and debates over: (1) whether the creation of Israel was an act of Jewish self-determination or colonialism, (2) whether Israel practices war crimes & genocide or merely acts in self-defense, (3) the best solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, (4) whether the alliance with Israel helps or hurts U.S. national interest.

Way back in Nov. 2019, the Skeptics had a meetup entitled "Has Israel Conspired Against the U.S.?" In the 1st section, we discussed the "Apollo affair" and the question of whether Israel stole nuclear material from the U.S. to jumpstart its nuclear program. In the 2nd section, we discussed the Israeli attack on the USS Liberty during the Six Day War. In the 3rd section, we discussed whether the "dancing Israelis" on 9/11 were Mossad agents with forewarning of the attacks on the World Trade Center. In the 4th section, we discussed whether Jeffrey Epstein was running a "honey trap" on his private island on behalf of Mossad.

Back in June 2019, the Skeptics had a meetup entitled "Neoliberals, Neocons & NWO 2.0." In the 3rd & 4th sections, we discussed whether "neocon" and "Zionist" are mere antisemitic slurs or if they can reflect evidence-based concerns about U.S. foreign policy.

Back in June 2024, the Skeptics had a meetup entitled "Are the Anti-Israel Protests Astroturfed?" and the Introduction section gave some tips for thinking rationally about rumors of "outside agitators", "astroturfing" and "foreign influence" operations. In the 2nd section, we discussed theories the campus protests in the spring of 2024 were driven by college activist groups and Middle Eastern Studies departments that receive funding from Qatar. In the 3rd section, we discussed theories that TikTok videos that focused on the plight of the Palestinians and make the IDF look bad was driven by an algorithm being curated by the CCP to sow division in the West.

Back in Sept. 2022, the Skeptics had a meetup entitled "Revisiting 9/11 Conspiracy Theories". The 3rd section dealt with conspiracy theories that claim Israel orchestrated the attacks or at least had forewarning, while the 4th section dealt with claims that the Saudis orchestrated the attacks or at least had forewarning.

Although it didn't deal with the Middle East, the Skeptics had a meetup back in March 2018 that assessed the effects of a foreign influence operation - the meetup was entitled "Russiagate or A New Red Scare?" In the 2nd section, we discussed various factors that weighed for or against the argument that Russian propaganda on social media could've tipped the 2016 presidential election to Trump.

Similarly, back in April 2022, the Skeptics had a meetup entitled "Is 'The Great Awokening' a Conspiracy?" In the 1st section, they discussed allegations that Russian disinformation agents might've stoked the anti-police protests in the summer of 2020, as well as the student protest movement of the 1960s, as a way to distract & destabilize the U.S. and get American policymakers to retreat from foreign policy commitments that ran counter to Russian interests.

Way back in Feb. 2018, we had a meetup entitled "Political Science & Political Myths". The 3rd section dealt with the role of money in politics and why political scientists tend to be more skeptical than laypeople about the frequency of lobbyists paying or threatening undecided or hostile legislators to change their mind, and more prone to thinking that lobbyists accomplish their goals primarily by finding already friendly legislators who will back legislation that benefits their specific interest group. This also aligns with one of the common things Ezra Klein said he heard at the American Political Science Association's convention in 2010: "Lobbyists don't run the show. The best predictor of legislative action isn't the money spent or the lobbyists involved, it's the politicians. Action becomes more likely when major players decided they wanted to act or suddenly were given the power to act [by changes in public opinion]."

NOTE: One of the major takeaways I've had from past discussions on lobbying and foreign influence operations is that a person's willingness to believe policies are the result of lobbying isn't static but rather fluctuates in a predictable way. Namely, the tendency to believe that a specific policy is the result of covert activity by special interests is strongly correlated with their personal view on that policy. If they like a given policy, they usually see it as a reflection of the general public's good political instincts and see attempts to paint it as the result of lobbyists or foreign agents as a stupid conspiracy theory. But if they don't like a given policy, they usually suspect it must be the result of some sort of conspiracy and that it can't possibly reflect the will of the majority of voters. Some of this is probably due to the "typical mind fallacy" - i.e. assuming most people think like you - or if they don't they're brainwashed by media propaganda whereas you are not (i.e. the "third-person effect"). But some of this special pleading may be due to the mistake of "privileging the hypothesis" (i.e. only looking for confirming evidence for one's favored explanation and ignoring alternative views). That's why it's important to compare people's views on how lobbying affects a specific foreign policy to how they generally evaluate lobbying on a range of foreign policies - i.e. are they moving the goalposts or using a common standard to evaluate policies they like & dislike?

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over the influence of Israel and various pro-Israel lobbyists (e.g. AIPAC, CUFI, WINEP, J Street) on U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the video of the debate between Coleman Hughes & Glenn Greenwald linked above. The articles marked with asterisks under each section are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. ORIGINS OF THE U.S. SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP WITH ISRAEL DURING THE COLD WAR:

• When did the U.S.–Israel “special relationship” actually begin — 1948, 1967, 1973, or later — and what makes one date more persuasive than another?
• How much did Cold War geostrategic factors—especially Soviet support for Arab nationalism and Israel’s military performance in 1967 and 1973—drive the U.S. shift toward Israel?
• Did organized pro-Israel lobbying help cause this shift, or did the growing strategic partnership create the conditions for a powerful Israel lobby?
• How much did broader shifts in American public opinion—especially growing pro-Israel sentiment among American Jews and the rise of Christian Zionism—matter relative to formal lobbying organizations like AIPAC?
• Is U.S. support for Israel best explained primarily by geostrategy, domestic politics, or an interaction of both—and how would we know which mattered more?
• How should we interpret statements by Richard Nixon and Barry Goldwater about the power of the “Israel lobby”? Do they provide evidence of unusual lobby influence, reflect broader shifts in domestic politics (e.g. rise of some American Jews to elite positions in mid-20th century), or tell us more about their own perceptions and anxieties than about actual policy causation?
• BACKGROUND ARTICLES:
• Jay Cristol, "When Did the U.S. and Israel Become Allies? (Hint: Trick Question)"
  https://www.historynewsnetwork.org/article/when-did-the-us-and-israel-become-allies-hint-tric
• Fayez Hammad, "A brief history of the US-Israel ‘special relationship’ shows how connections have shifted since long before the 1948 founding of the Jewish state"
  https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/brief-history-of-us-isreal-relations/
• David Vebeeten, "How Important Is the Israel Lobby?" (history of AIPAC)
  https://www.meforum.org/middle-east-quarterly/how-important-is-the-israel-lobby
• Coleman Hughes, "The Nixon thing is a lie. Full quote below."
  https://x.com/coldxman/status/2036912552479981839
• Dan Nexon, "The 'Israel Lobby' and the Nixon Administration"
  https://www.duckofminerva.com/2013/07/the-israel-lobby-and-the-nixon-administration.html
• Philip Weiss, "Goldwater: Israel lobby is way too powerful, it could send us to war, and money’s at the root of it"
  https://mondoweiss.net/2010/10/goldwater-israel-lobby-is-way-too-powerful-it-could-send-us-to-war-and-moneys-at-the-root-of-it/
• Mokhtar Ben Barka, "The New Christian Right’s relations with Israel and with the American Jews: the mid-1970s onward"
  https://journals.openedition.org/erea/2753?lang=en#tocto1n5

II. WAYS TO MEASURE THE ISRAELI LOBBY'S INFLUENCE ON U.S. FOREIGN POLICY VERSUS OTHER MAJOR LOBBIES:

• How should we measure the power of a foreign lobby (e.g. lobbying expenditures, campaign donations, foreign aid, military bases, etc.)?
• Does comparing Israel with other foreign lobbies (Arab states, defense contractors, oil interests) suggest the pro-Israel lobby is uniquely powerful, or one important actor within a broader competitive ecosystem?
• How broadly should we define the “Israel lobby”? Should it refer narrowly to lobbyists like AIPAC & think tanks like WINEP, or more broadly to a larger pro-Israel coalition including Christian Zionist evangelical leaders, conservative Jewish leaders, neocon pundits & media figures, various pro-Israel donors—or is the latter more like a "constituency" than a "lobby"?
• Is the pro-Israel lobby's influence mainly about changing politicians' minds or partnering with politicians who already share their views?
• Does Michael Hudson's geostrategic analysis weaken the "Israel lobby" thesis—or reframe it?
• Why does Noam Chomsky reject Walt & Mearsheimer's "Israel lobby" thesis and favor a "sum of all lobbies" framework instead?
• BACKGROUND ARTICLES:
• Open Secrets, "Foreign Lobby Watch"
  https://www.opensecrets.org/fara
• Julia Haynes, "Countries That Receive the Most Foreign Aid From the U.S."
  https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/countries-that-receive-the-most-foreign-aid-from-the-u-s
• Ben Freeman & Nick Cleveland-Stout, "Foreign Lobbying in the U.S."
  https://quincyinst.org/research/foreign-lobbying-in-the-u-s/
• Alex Weinreb, "Israel is not the largest recipient of US foreign assistance [once the cost of overseas bases is added to foreign aid]"
  https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/israel-is-not-the-largest-recipient-of-us-foreign-assistance/
• Mitchell Bard, "The Pro-Israel & Pro-Arab Lobbies"
  https://jewishvirtuallibrary.org/the-pro-israel-and-pro-arab-lobbies
• Ben Norton, "Why does the U.S. support Israel? A geopolitical analysis with economist Michael Hudson"
  https://mronline.org/2025/05/12/why-does-the-u-s-support-israel-2/
• Noam Chomsky, "The Israel Lobby?"
  https://chomsky.info/20060328/

III. THE ROLE OF ISRAEL IN BUSH'S DECISION TO INVADE IRAQ IN MAR. 2003:

• Based on Joseph Stieb's survey of the scholarly debates between the security & hegemony camps, was the invasion primarily driven by genuine security fears, broader ambitions to reshape the Middle East, or other factors?
• Mehdi Hasan, following Walt and Mearsheimer, cites Israeli intelligence cooperation and public advocacy for war as evidence Israel was a “critical” factor. How strong is this evidence when weighed against arguments that the war was already overdetermined by Saddam's assassination plot against George H.W. Bush in 1993, his ejection of UN weapons inspectors in 1998, optimism about regime change based on the successful intervention in the former Yugoslavia, and a huge rise in fears of Islamic terrorism & WMDs after 9/11?
• Considering that the 1998 Iraq Liberation Act made regime change official U.S. policy before 9/11, and some Bush officials reportedly discussed Iraq very early in 2001, how much did the decision for war predate both 9/11 and later Israeli advocacy for removing Saddam?
• Considering that Benjamin Netanyahu (as a private citizen) publicly argued toppling Saddam would have “enormous positive reverberations,” while PM Ariel Sharon reportedly warned that removing Saddam could strengthen Iran, how should we understand the Israeli position in the lead-up to the war? Was there even a single “Israeli position” to speak of?
• The 1996 "Clean Break" memo urged confronting regional threats including Iraq, and some future Iraq War advocates helped draft it. Does this suggest Israeli strategic thinking helped shape the intellectual origins of the war, or is the memo often asked to carry more explanatory weight than it can bear?
• Supporters of the Israel lobby thesis note that figures like Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, and Douglas Feith strongly favored regime change in Iraq, while critics point out that Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld—hardly acting on Israel’s behalf—were at least as important. Does the role of the neoconservatives strengthen the Israel lobby thesis, or point more toward a broader ideology of U.S. primacy?
• BACKGROUND ARTICLES:
• Wikipedia, "Rationale for the Iraq War"
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationale_for_the_Iraq_War
• Josseph Stieb, "Why Did the United States Invade Iraq? The Debate at 20 Years"
  https://tnsr.org/2023/06/why-did-the-united-states-invade-iraq-the-debate-at-20-years/
• Mehdi Hasan, "What role did Israel play in the run-up to the Iraq war?
  Blair, Bush, Chilcot and the Israelis." (summarizes Walt & Mearsheimer's position)
  https://archive.ph/ge46m
• J.J. Goldberg, "Bibi vs. Sharon on Bush’s Iraq Debacle"
  https://forward.com/opinion/218317/bibi-vs-sharon-on-bushs-iraq-debacle/
• Stephen Zunes, "Don't Blame the Iraq Debacle on the Israel Lobby:
  The Israel lobby is responsible for its fair share of catastrophes--but the Iraq war is not among them."
  https://fpif.org/dont_blame_the_iraq_debacle_on_the_israel_lobby/

IV. THE ROLE OF ISRAEL IN TRUMP'S DECISION TO LAUNCH AIR STRIKES ON IRAN IN FEB. 2026 AIMED AT REGIME CHANGE:

• Did Netanyahu alone push Trump to attack Iran, or did a quieter push from Saudi crown prince MBS for regime change (despite public calls for diplomacy) play a decisive role?
• Did Israel force Trump's hand by threatening to attack Iran without the U.S. which would've led to Iranian strikes on the US based in the region, as Marco Rubio claimed?
• Could pro-Israel Trump donors like Miriam Adelson, Paul Singer, & Bernie Marcus have played a role in pushing Trump to attack Iran? If Trump had refused, what could they have done in light of the fact he's (presumably) not running for re-election in 2028?
• Did Trump’s long-standing Iran hawkishness dating back to the 1980s make outside pressure less decisive?
• Did the apparent success of the quick regime change operation in Venezuela produce overconfidence that made an Iran war seem low-risk?
• To what extent did revenge for an alleged Iranian assassination plot on Trump matter?
• Did Iranian protests in Jan. 2026 cause the decision to launch a regime change operation or merely influence its timing? How about the Israeli intelligence on the above-ground meeting of top Iranian officials on Feb. 28th that created the possibility of a "decapitation strike"?
• Was the war driven mainly by allied pressure, Trump’s own predispositions, or convergence between them?
• To what extent does Greenwald treat some conspiratorial claims associated with Carlson or Kent as credible arguments, versus viewing them as “directionally correct” expressions of broader distrust in establishment narratives? Is that a legitimate critical posture, or does it risk normalizing poorly evidenced claims?
• BACKGROUND ARTICLES:
• Michael Burnbaum, et al., "Push from Saudis, Israel helped move Trump to attack Iran: U.S. intelligence assessments saw no imminent threat, but regional allies argued now was the time to strike." (Wash. Post)
  https://archive.ph/ye0pC
• The Week Staff, "Iran: Did Israel persuade Trump to attack?
  It depends on who you ask" (summarizes articles at New Republic, The Atlantic, Wash. Post, MS Now)
  https://archive.ph/9WQPL
• Daniel C. Kurtzer & Aaron David Miller, "The Problem With the Idea That Netanyahu Made Trump Attack Iran"
  https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/03/trump-netanyahu-iran-war-responsibility
• Connor Echols, "Did the US only attack Iran because of Israel? As Trump’s campaign against the Iranian regime continues, analysts at this weekend's J Street conference debate why Washington opted to attack now"
  https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-and-israel-war/
• Tom Phillips, "Trump ‘reaping bitter fruit’ of thinking Iran intervention as easy as Venezuela, says former diplomat: John Feeley says US president was ‘flush with victory’ of Maduro capture and could make same mistake in Cuba" (Guardian)
  https://archive.ph/UuoLl
• Matthew Schmitz, "Trump Was Always an Iran Hawk"
  https://www.compactmag.com/article/trump-was-always-an-iran-hawk/
• Erica Orden, "Iran ordered an operative to assassinate Trump before the election, federal prosecutors say"
  https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/08/donald-trump-iran-assassination-plot-00188498
  ARTICLES ON CONSPIRACY THEORIES RELATED TO THE DEBATE:
• David Gilbert, "MAGA Is Increasingly Convinced the Trump Assassination Attempt Was Staged"
  https://www.wired.com/story/maga-is-increasingly-convinced-the-trump-assassination-attempt-was-staged/
• Ben Stockton, "Charlie Kirk told me to prevent Iran war before he died, says Trump ally who quit"
  https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/charlie-kirk-told-prevent-iran-201655112.html
• David M. Drucker, "Joe Kent Is a Conspiracy Theorist, Not a Principled Dissenter"
  https://archive.ph/HaGI7
• Nick Mordowanec, "Jeffrey Epstein Rumored Mossad Connection [Promoted by Tucker Carlson] Explained"
  https://www.newsweek.com/jeffrey-epstein-mossad-tucker-carlson-israel-naftali-2098880
• Hannah Feuer, "Chabad on high alert after false Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens war claims"
  https://forward.com/fast-forward/810283/tucker-carlson-chabad-candace-owens/
• David Corn, "Tucker Carlson, Glenn Greenwald, the JFK Assassination, Watergate, and the MAGA Perversion of History"
  https://link.motherjones.com/public/30336159
• Greg Graziosi, "Tucker Carlson claims Sandy Hook denier Alex Jones is a supernatural prophet who predicted 9/11"
  https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/tucker-carlson-alex-jones-supernatural-prophet-b2544943.html
• Eoin Higgins, "Glenn Greenwald’s bromance with Alex Jones: New low for a onetime Pulitzer winner"
  https://www.salon.com/2022/10/07/glenn-greenwalds-bromance-with-alex-jones-new-low-for-a-onetime-pulitzer-winner/
• NOTE: Back in May 2025, we had a meetup entitled "WWII Revisionism & The Right" that discussed Tucker Carlson's interview with history podcaster Darry Cooper

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