Bi-Weekly Discussion - (Why) Has Crime Declined?

Hosted by Brian B.

Super Organizer

Philadelphia Political Agnostics

Details

This is going to be an online meetup using Zoom. If you've never used Zoom before, don't worry — it's easy to use and free to join.

Click on the link above at the scheduled date/time to log in...

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CRIMES TRENDS SINCE THE COVID PANDEMIC: THINGS TO CELEBRATE & THINGS THAT NEED MORE FOCUS

INTRODUCTION:

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RELEVANT MATERIAL FROM PAST MEETUPS:

Back in Sept. 2025, shortly after the assassination of Charlie Kirk and murder of Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska, we had a meetup entitled "Is Political Violence Increasing in America?" where we looked at recent trends in political violence & hate crimes, as well as the underlying support for them. We also discussed how the "radical flank effect" explains the political effects of riots vs peaceful protests, and how various theories about "conflict cycles" dovetail with concerns about a "Second Civil War".

In Oct. 2024, we had a meetup entitled "The Urban Doom Loop & Housing Crisis". In the 1st section, we discussed whether the wave of closures of urban retail outlets was more due to shoplifting or people shopping more online. We also talked about concerns over crime and the rise of remote work will lead to urban decline as professionals move out of major cities.

Back in Aug. 2023, we had a meetup entitled "Has Defunding Police Led to Rising Crime?" where we looked at: (1) which crime rates were rising and why, (2) whether cities were bungling policing reform, (3) whether cities were bungling bail & prosecution reform, (4) whether courts were bungling sentencing & parole reform.

Back in Oct. 2023, the Skeptics had a meetup entitled "Is Mass Migration a Crisis or a Moral Panic?" and the 3rd section addressed concerns about an "illegal immigrant crime wave". As we saw, illegal immigrants are overrepresented in federal prisons largely due to immigration violations or involvement in cross-border drug trafficking, but the vast majority of America's criminals (violent & non-violent) are incarcerated in state & county prisons and that's where illegal immigrants are underrepresented. Overall, US cities with large numbers of legal & illegal immigrants (LA, NYC, Houston, Dallas, Miami) do not have violent crime rates comparable to cities like Memphis, St. Louis, Detroit, Baltimore, Oakland.

In Aug. 2023, the Skeptics had a meetup entitled "Is Mass Incarceration a Conspiracy?" that fact-checked various allegations about the prison system in the U.S. Many laypeople are unaware that: (1) private prisons only hold a minority of prisoners and didn't cause mass incarceration, (2) prison labor is mostly used for routine tasks within the prison or state work not private corporations, (3) several aspects of the "school-to-prison pipeline" are overstated, and (4) very few prisoners are locked up solely for non-violent drug offenses. While there are problems with the U.S. prison system, especially the unusually high percentage of citizens that are incarcerated compared to other wealthy industrialized countries, this appears more like a broader societal problem (i.e. much higher murder rates) or policy failure than a conspiracy.

In Sept. 2019, we had a meetup entitled "Is Predictive Policing 'The Minority Report'?" where we discussed: (1) the rise of mass surveillance in law enforcement, (2) criminal profiling and the rise of criminal databases, (3) the links between "broken windows policing" and "predictive policing", and (4) the rise of "pre-crime" interventions and the "preventative state". While predictive policing technologies could potentially help avert crimes before they happen, they also pose some ethical dilemmas in terms of invasion of privacy, as well as negating the presumption of innocence and the right to due process.

Back in Apr. 2018, the Skeptics had a meetup entitled "Racial Bias in the Police Use of Force". We examined the data on racial bias in police use of force incidents in the U.S. Two of the basic takeaways was that the data collection & aggregation on police use of force isn't very comprehensive, and as with the statistics on gun violence there is a lot of dishonest "massaging" of statistics in both the liberal & conservative news media -- in this case, to either support or counter the charges of systematic racism by police.

Back in April of 2018, we had a meetup entitled "Understanding Gun Violence". We looked at gun homicides in America and addressed some of the common misconceptions that people have when they try to parse the statistics presented in the news media. This task is made difficult both by the general public's poor understanding of statistics and the frequent "massaging" of statistics by both sides in the gun control debate to try to fit them into their preferred narrative. One of the points we discussed which is relevant to today's discussion is that most violent crime is committed by a very small percentage of repeat offenders, and even low-income urban neighborhoods with lots of risk factors become much safer if "hot spot policing" focuses on removing these career criminals.

DIRECTIONS ON HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUR DISCUSSION:

The videos & articles you see linked below are intended to give you a basic overview of some of the major debates over crime & policing in America. As usual, I certainly don't expect you to read all the articles prior to attending our discussion. The easiest way to prepare for our discussion is to just watch the numbered videos linked under each section - the videos come to about 46 minutes total. The articles marked with asterisks are just there to supply additional details. You can browse and look at whichever ones you want, but don't worry - we'll cover the stuff you missed in our discussion.

In terms of the discussion format, my general idea is that we'll address the topics in the order presented here. I've listed some questions under each section to stimulate discussion. We'll do our best to address most of them, as well as whatever other questions our members raise. I figure we'll spend about 30 minutes on each section.

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I. VIOLENT CRIME TRENDS SINCE THE COVID PANDEMIC:

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1a) Vox, "Most Americans are wrong about crime" (video - 11:19 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg8FDKrlDBM

1b) News Nation, "US murder rate declines to lowest level since 1900: report" (video - 2:33 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg8FDKrlDBM

Noah Smith, "Yes, of course crime is way down [in 2024]: The people telling you crime isn't falling are feeding you a line."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/yes-of-course-crime-is-way-down
Scott Alexander, "Record Low Crime Rates [in 2025] Are Real, Not Just Reporting Bias Or Improved Medical Care"
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/record-low-crime-rates-are-real-not
Ruth Abaya, et al., "What’s Driving the Drop in Homicide? How Low Might It Go?"
https://counciloncj.org/whats-driving-the-drop-in-homicide-how-low-might-it-go/
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II. POLITICAL VIOLENCE & MASS VIOLENCE TRENDS SINCE THE COVID PANDEMIC:

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2a) PBS Newshour w/ Cynthia Miller-Idriss, "Why political violence and violent threats are on the rise in the United States [in 2024]" (video - 5:15 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ugYcnKx5bo

2b) WION, "US' Extreme-left Overtakes Extreme-Right in Cases of Political Violence [in 2025]" (video - 2:12 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luIKRYta4k8

Caitlin Ostroff & Jaclyn Jeffrey-Wilensky, "The Year of the Molotov Cocktail: American Antigovernment Violence Hits a 30-Year High"
https://archive.ph/ogljj
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III. PROPERTY CRIME TRENDS SINCE THE COVID PANDEMIC:

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3a) CNBC, "Car shortage causes major increase in auto theft [in 2021]" (video - 4:31 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQEajYLCPo4

3b) PBS Newshour, "As retailers close stores due to shoplifting [in 2023], are the concerns real or overblown?" (video - 7:31 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Mnwgh5XGhk

3c) CBS News, "Crime decreased in every category in 2024, FBI report shows" (video - 1:43 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sL_Pdfk8--U

USA Facts, "How have property crime rates changed over time?The national property crime rate decreased in 2024 to its lowest level in at least 48 years — the largest single year drop in that time."
https://usafacts.org/articles/property-crime-rates/
Judd Legum, "Lies, damn lies, and shoplifting statistics"
https://popular.info/p/lies-damn-lies-and-shoplifting-statistics
John Hall, "Deciphering Retail Theft Data: Implications and Actions for Policymakers"
https://manhattan.institute/article/deciphering-retail-theft-data
Devin Pavlou, "Car thieves hit the brakes in 2025. Here’s why"
https://san.com/cc/car-thieves-hit-the-brakes-in-2025-heres-why/
Bryan Walsh, "The quiet revolution that made your home, car, and wallet a lot safer: The decline of burglary and robbery, explained."
https://archive.ph/AlN8Y

IV. PUBLIC DISORDER, DRUG ABUSE & HOMELESSNESS TRENDS SINCE THE COVID PANDEMIC:

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4a) ABC News, "NYPD targets quality-of-life crimes [in 2022]; critics cite 'broken windows'" (video - 3:04 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJSOoM3zcbo

4b) CBS News, "Why opioid use is up as overdose deaths decline - naloxone [in 2024]" (video - 2:54 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdeA04ROHFE

4c) CBS News, "Homelessness on the rise in America [in 2024]" (video - 3:54 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoiPCkxTVIs

Scott Alexander, "Crime As Proxy For Disorder"
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/crime-as-proxy-for-disorder
Ray Sanchez & Mark Morales, "Law enforcement focus on quality-of-life offenses renews old debate over ‘broken windows’ policing"
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/26/us/crime-us-quality-of-life-policing
Matt Yglesias, "Liberalism and public order: Maintaining functional public systems and spaces *is* progressive"
https://www.slowboring.com/p/liberalism-and-public-order
Noah Smith, "Why does America feel worse than other countries? Crime."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-does-america-feel-worse-than
Hannah Harris Green & Matt Kiefer, "Overdose in America: analysis reveals deaths rising in some regions even as US sees national decline"
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2025/oct/17/overdose-deaths-data-analysis
The Economist, "Homelessness rises to a record level in America [in 2024]: A surge in migration and disasters pushed many people over the edge"
https://archive.ph/PGo6w
Hamed Aleaziz, "Illegal Border Crossings Plunge to Lowest Level in Decades" (NY Times)
https://archive.ph/NACIB

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Philadelphia Political Agnostics

Bi-Weekly Discussion - (Why) Has Crime Declined?

Philadelphia Political Agnostics

Details

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