PyMC Labs Online Meetup

🎙️ Speakers: Dr Daniel Saunders (PyMC Labs),
Carlos A. Zetina (FICO Xpress), and Jay Laramore (FICO Xpress) | ⏰ Time: 15:00 UTC / 8:00 AM PT / 11:00 AM ET / 5:00 PM Berlin

Optimization models often rely on point forecasts that ignore uncertainty. Yet many operational decisions must remain robust against unpredictable demand, weather, and market conditions.

This talk presents a practical framework for building optimization models in the face of uncertainty by combining Bayesian probabilistic forecasting with mathematical optimization. Using PyMC, we generate posterior demand distributions that capture seasonality, trends, and extreme events. These posterior samples form a distribution of possible outcomes that are incorporated directly into optimization models that are solved using FICO Xpress.

We’ll demonstrate how this approach enables risk-aware decision-making using chance-constrained optimization and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). Through an electricity generation planning example, attendees will learn how probabilistic forecasts can be incorporated into FICO Xpress to support practical decision-making despite uncertainty.

📜 Outline of Talk / Agenda:

• 5 min: Introduction to PyMC Labs and speakers
• 40 min: Panel discussion
• 15 min: Q&A

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💼 About the speakers: