A Candle in the Dark:How to Use Hierarchical Post-Stratification with Noisy Data

## Speaker

Tarmo Jüristo, Alex Andorra and Thomas Wiecki

## Time

9am PT / 12pm ET / 5pm UTC / 6pm Berlin

## Duration

60 minutes

## Event Description

In this panel discussion, Tarmo Jüristo will tell us how Bayesian modeling can help in environments where data are noisy and uncertainty is high – like public opinion polls. In particular, data can be sparse in some strata of the population, making the model’s job harder, precisely for the demographics you’re the most interested in.

A special focus will be placed on the work PyMC Labs has done with Tarmo, implementing a state-of-the-art hierarchical Bayesian model. Coupled with post-stratification, this method not only makes inference possible – it makes it actionable, even you have only a few data points for some demographics. The panel discussion will be followed by Q&A.

## About the speaker

Thomas Wiecki
Dr. Thomas Wiecki is an author of PyMC, the leading platform for statistical data science. To help businesses solve some of their trickiest data science problems, he assembled a world class team of Bayesian modelers founded PyMC Labs -- the Bayesian consultancy. He did his PhD at Brown University studying cognitive neuroscience.

GitHub: https://github.com/twiecki
Twitter: [ https://twitter.com/twiecki](https://twitter.com/twiecki)
Website: https://twiecki.io/

Tarmo Jüristo
Tarmo is the founder of SALK, a foundation established to support progressive political forces in Estonia by providing sophisticated yet reliable data-based insights and analysis.

GitHub: https://github.com/tarmojuristo
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tarmo-j%C3%BCristo-7018bb7/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/tarmojuristo
Website: https://www.salk.ee

Alexandre Andorra
By day, Alex is a principal data scientist and co-founder at the PyMC Labs consultancy. By night, he doesn’t (yet) fight crime, but he’s an open-source enthusiast and core contributor to the awesome Python packages PyMC and ArviZ. An always-learning statistician, he loves building models and studying elections and human behavior. He also loves Nutella a bit too much, but he doesn't like talking about it – he prefers eating it.

GitHub: https://github.com/AlexAndorra
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aandorra-pollsposition/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/alex_andorra
Website: https://learnbayesstats.com/

## Code of Conduct
Please note that participants are expected to abide by PyMC's Code of Conduct.

## Connecting with PyMC Labs

- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pymc-labs/
- Twitter: https://twitter.com/pymc_labs
- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/PyMCLabs
- Meetup: https://www.meetup.com/pymc-labs-online-meetup/
- Eventbrite: https://www.eventbrite.com/o/pymc-labs-52691968823

## Connecting with PyMC Open Source

- Q&A/Discussion: https://discourse.pymc.io
- Twitter: https://twitter.com/pymc_devs
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pymc
- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/PyMCDevelopers