Robust Decision Modeling with PyMC and FICO® Xpress
Details
🎙️ Speakers: Dr Daniel Saunders (PyMC Labs),
Carlos A. Zetina (FICO Xpress), and Jay Laramore (FICO Xpress) | ⏰ Time: 15:00 UTC / 8:00 AM PT / 11:00 AM ET / 5:00 PM Berlin
Optimization models often rely on point forecasts that ignore uncertainty. Yet many operational decisions must remain robust against unpredictable demand, weather, and market conditions.
This talk presents a practical framework for building optimization models in the face of uncertainty by combining Bayesian probabilistic forecasting with mathematical optimization. Using PyMC, we generate posterior demand distributions that capture seasonality, trends, and extreme events. These posterior samples form a distribution of possible outcomes that are incorporated directly into optimization models that are solved using FICO Xpress.
We’ll demonstrate how this approach enables risk-aware decision-making using chance-constrained optimization and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). Through an electricity generation planning example, attendees will learn how probabilistic forecasts can be incorporated into FICO Xpress to support practical decision-making despite uncertainty.
📜 Outline of Talk / Agenda:
- 5 min: Introduction to PyMC Labs and speakers
- 40 min: Panel discussion
- 15 min: Q&A
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💼 About the speakers:
Dr Daniel Saunders (Principal Data Scientist at PyMC Labs)
Daniel is an expert in building fast and stable Bayesian models for pricing and marketing applications. He holds a PhD from the University of British Columbia, where he did research in evolutionary game theory. He taught scientific computing, statistics, and modeling in the Cognitive Systems program at UBC for several years.
Connect with Daniel: 👉 Linkedin 🧩 Github
Jay Laramore (Product Marketing Director at FICO Xpress)
Seasoned data and decision scientist turned product marketing leader. He leads the product marketing strategy for FICO Xpress, a global leader in optimization software used to solve complex, high-impact decision problems across industries.
With deep technical roots and a strategic mindset, Jay specializes in translating complex solutions into clear value propositions, enabling go-to-market success and alignment across product, sales, and executive teams.
Connect with Jay: 👉 Linkedin
💼 About the Host:
Evan Wimpey (Director of Analytics at PyMC Labs)
Evan helps clients design Bayesian solutions tailored to their goals, ensuring they understand both the how and why of inference. With master’s degrees in Economics and Analytics, he focuses on delivering clear value throughout projects and brings a unique twist with his background in data comedy.
Connect with Evan: 👉 Linkedin
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📖 Code of Conduct:
Please note that participants are expected to abide by PyMC's Code of Conduct.
Connecting with PyMC Labs:
🌐 Website: https://www.pymc-labs.com/
👥 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/pymc-labs/
🐦 Twitter: https://twitter.com/pymc_labs
🎥 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/PyMCLabs
🤝 Meetup: https://www.meetup.com/pymc-labs-online-meetup/
🎮 Discord: https://discord.gg/MARSCNemw3