Name: April BARUG meetup at Predictive Analytics World
Start: 2016-04-04T17:30:00-07:00
End: 2016-04-04T20:30:00-07:00
Location: Marriott Marquis Hotel

Once again we are very happy to be able to hold our April meeting at Predictive Analytics World (https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.predictiveanalyticsworld.com%2fsanfrancisco%2f2016%2f%3futm_medium%3dreferral-organic%26utm_campaign%3dPAWSF16%26utm_source%3dbarug%26utm_content%3dusergroupmeeting&data=01%7c01%7cjrickert%40microsoft.com%7c04042fe13f07453a714808d30bb70166%7c72f988bf86f141af91ab2d7cd011db47%7c1&sdata=86pbqCbvuL85IBgRhyypT3NGz7X5VrYqWsrehsGo8rg%3d) (PAW). As in previous meetings held in conjunction with PAW, BARUG members are invited to the PAW reception before the meeting and will have access to the Exhibit Hall during the reception. Also, BARUG members who wish to attend the PAW conference itself will be eligible for a 15% discount to the conference. Register now (https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.predictiveanalyticsworld.com%2fsanfrancisco%2fregister.php%3futm_medium%3dreferral-organic%26utm_campaign%3dPAWSF16%26utm_source%3dbarug%26utm_content%3dusergroupmeeting&data=01%7c01%7cjrickert%40microsoft.com%7c04042fe13f07453a714808d30bb70166%7c72f988bf86f141af91ab2d7cd011db47%7c1&sdata=WYKFcHI2CPCKfhdm56avJp4HEPZWFUIGYHPfCu2Xywk%3d) with discount code BARUG15.

BARUG Speakers:

Megan Price, Executive Director: Human Rights Data Analysis Group (https://hrdag.org/2015/11/24/changes-at-hrdag/)
Blair Hull, Ketchum Trading (http://www.ketchumtrading.com/)
Keith R Everett
Max Kuhn, Pfizer (http://www.pfizer.com/)

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Agenda:
5:30 PAW Reception
6:45 Announcements
6:50 Keith R. Everett: GLMNet Model: Prediction for the Oscars (Lightning Talk)
7:05 Megan Price: Exploring R packages to estimate Conflict-Related Casualties in Syria
7:45 Blair Hull: Market Timing, Big Data and Machine Learning
8:20 Max Kuhn: TBD.

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Megan Price

Exploring R Packages to Estimate Conflict-Related Casualties in Syria

The ongoing conflict in Syria is extremely well documented. Through a combination of mainstream and social media, citizen journalists, and non-governmental organizations, many groups and individuals are carrying out the difficult and dangerous work of recording information about the violent conflict. But this information is unevenly distributed both over the time period of the conflict and the geographic regions of the country. The resulting missing data skew and bias any potential conclusions we may draw from observed patterns of violence. The class of statistical methods called multiple systems estimation (MSE) provide one way to estimate and account for this missing data. In this talk I will explore two R packages - dga (https://mran.revolutionanalytics.com/package/dga/) and LCMCR (https://mran.revolutionanalytics.com/package/LCMCR/) - that implement Bayesian approaches to this class of methods. Code from each package will be demonstrated using preliminary analyses of data from the Syrian conflict.

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Blair Hull

MARKET TIMING, BIG DATA AND MACHINE LEARNING

There is a stigma against market timing. This stigma existed for good reasons, but the explosion of vast data sets and new analytical techniques has now made timing the market possible. Just as it was considered irresponsible to time the market over the last 30 years, it will be considered irresponsible NOT to time the market in the next 30 years.

Joseph Rickert

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April BARUG meetup at Predictive Analytics World

Marriott Marquis Hotel

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Bay Area useR Group (R Programming Language)

April BARUG meetup at Predictive Analytics World

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