Should Joe Biden Withdraw to Permit an Alternative Democratic Nominee to Run?

We will be considering the following question: Should Joe Biden withdraw from the 2024 presidential race to give an alternative Democratic party candidate a reasonable chance of prevailing against the presumptive Republican nominee -- Donald Trump? It is a question that has been raised recently -- by some Democrats and even some who largely consider Biden a solid politician with a reasonably good record thus far in his presidency. The proposed discussion question assumes the perspective of someone who is looking to improve the likelihood of a victory by the Democratic Party nominee for the presidency in 2024.

The topic for this discussion was initially prompted by a couple of Ezra Klein Show podcasts in which the show's NY Times columnist host talks about his recent (and difficult) decision to suggest a Biden withdrawal to make way for another Democratic nominee. As expected, his change of heart proposal prompted a fare number or both supportive and troubled responses. In the podcasts Klein presents his reasoning for this position, but acknowledges significant counter-arguments. He also understands the risks of Biden withdrawing at this point, but felt that the risks of staying the current course are greater, at least as of the time of his podcast's publication.

Specifically, in his February 16 and 23 Ezra Klein Show podcasts (see references below), Klein presents and defends his recent reassessment and decision to recommend that Biden withdraw. His personal feeling is that Joe Biden is a good person and has done a reasonably good job as president. But he is very concerned that the electorate's perceptions on Biden's age, ability to serve another full term, and effectiveness in office. He feels that these perceptions make the possibility of a Trump victory in the 2024 race all too real. His view is that avoiding a second Trump presidential term is paramount. He acknowledges the uncertainties, risks & potential downsides associated with Biden withdrawing at this point. These include: (a) difficulty in identifying and selecting a replacement nominee at this late stage; (b) short time for an alternate to prepare and achieve recognition with the electorate; (c) handing decision to party convention delegates instead of registered Democratic voters; and (d) the alternate selected might do even less well against Trump than Biden.

However, polling results as of the podcast, Biden's campaign performance as of mid-February, and Klein's own experience in following presidential politics convinced him that the risks of staying with Biden outweigh the risks of a late stage withdrawal. Klein argues that up until not that long ago, party nominees were chosen by delegates instead of via primaries and the mechanisms for selecting a nominee at the convention are still in place. Furthermore, while polls report that a significant percentage of Democrats would rather that Biden not be the nominee, the difficulty of opposing a running incumbent has preventing most viable alternative candidates from challenging him in the primaries. Klein also feels that there are viable Democratic alternates available who would have enough time to campaign if they received solid Democratic party support following a Biden withdrawal. But, he does allow that a major development between mid-February and the Democratic convention (8/19-22) could change his assessment. Indeed, since the podcast, Biden's State of the Union performance & other developments could change one's position on the question.

During the discussion, let's plan to consider the following subsidiary questions:

1. What is/are the most important consideration(s) in deciding whether Biden should step aside?
-a. What is best for the country and/or world
-b. Likelihood of preventing Trump second term
-c. Biden's record in his first term
-d. Concerns over Biden's age & ability to meet demands of another 4-year term
-e. Possibility of death in office
-f. Extent to which voters have a say in selecting Democratic nominee

2. Is Biden's withdrawal at this late stage workable & likely to improve chances of victory for the Democratic nominee?

3. If Biden should withdraw: Should it be ASAP or shortly before the Democratic convention? Should he endorse a specific replacement?

4. Who might be a viable alternative Democratic nominee?

5. Have any recent developments since Klein's mid-February podcasts significantly changed circumstances that prompted Klein's suggestion that Biden withdraw?

6. If Biden remains in the race, are there changes in his campaign or policy stance that would significantly improve the likelihood of his election to a second term?

While not required, participants may wish to listen to (or read the transcript of) the podcasts that suggested this topic:

[A] The Feb. 16, 2024 podcast (25:12) of The Ezra Klein Show, "Democrats Have a Better Option Than Biden":
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/opinion/ezra-klein-biden-audio-essay.html?unlocked_article_code=1.a00.zO0o.EDyIdmFJgAEB&smid=url-share

[B] On 2/23/2024, Ezra Klein is himself interviewed in a Q&A format (51:24) to clarify his position from 2/16 podcast and how he thinks an open convention could work:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/opinion/open-conventions-gaza-biden.html?unlocked_article_code=1.eU0.m1sp.xjx82_aNotCd&smid=url-share

If you have time for a deeper dive, these additional references may be of interest:

[C] A 12/2021 CNN list of possible Biden replacements for 2024: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/13/politics/2024-democrats-replace-biden/index.html

[D] A Feb. 21, 2024 podcast (1:02:55), in which Ezra Klein interviews a primary and party convention expert, Elaine Kamarck, to explore how an open convention would work: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/21/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-elaine-kamarck.html?unlocked_article_code=1.a00.zK9u.9BkqIl7ei_MS&smid=url-share