Implications of the Election Results (SHANNONDELL Valley Forge)

This Saturday we will discuss some local and state election results. This will be the first major election day of President Trump’s second term.

Here are some questions we will consider:

• Do Republican wins signify support for President Trump?
• Do Democratic wins signify opposition to Trump?
• What, if anything, can we infer about the popularity of Trump’s policies?
• How much does turnout matter?
• How much do margins matter?
• Were there any surprises, landslides, or new regional patterns?
• Was there any violence, threats of violence, or other irregularities at the polls?
• Did federal monitors from the Justice Department interfere with the elections in California or New Jersey? Why were they there?

We will look at the elections for governors of New Jersey and Virginia. Both states have a history of electing Republicans for statewide office. This year, according to a PBS election guide, the Republican candidates have closely aligned themselves with Trump, betting that his popularity can help them win. But history also suggests that the party in the White House typically suffers in off-year elections.

In New York City, democratic socialist, Zohran Mamdani, is running for mayor. He has been advocating radical changes to address economic inequality. If he wins, will this reflect a progressive shift nationally or only in New York? Will it signify a deeper divide between the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic Party? Concerns about rising antisemitism and Mamdani’s sharp criticisms of Israel have opened up a split among New York Jews. Are there any implications for future antisemitism in the U.S.?

Pennsylvanians get to choose whether to retain three liberal state Supreme Court justices. Record amounts of money have been raised and spent by both parties. The outcome not only affects Pennsylvanians, but it is widely seen as a referendum on the Democratic Party.

California is voting on Proposition 50, a referendum that will allow the majority Democrats to redraw congressional districts, giving Democrats an unfair advantage in the 2026 mid-term election? Is California’s proposed gerrymandering justified to offset the recent Republican gerrymanders in Texas and other states?

I will post some election results and media commentary later this week, but here is a PBS pre-election guide you may find helpful: “Here’s What to Watch for on the First Major Election Day of Trump’s 2nd Term,” available at https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/heres-what-to-watch-for-on-the-first-major-election-day-of-trumps-2nd-term.