Discussing the war in Iran

The conflict now unfolding between the United States, Israel, and Iran did not emerge from nowhere. Tensions over Iran's nuclear program have simmered for decades, intensifying after the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018. A "Twelve-Day War" in June 2025 struck Iranian nuclear facilities, and indirect diplomatic negotiations in early 2026 appeared to be making progress — before the joint U.S.-Israeli surprise airstrikes on February 28, 2026 killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and numerous Iranian officials, triggering the current war. The confrontation came after years of rising tension over Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, and its military reach across the Middle East, with attempts to renegotiate a nuclear deal proving unsuccessful. Many of us watch these events with a heavy heart, aware that diplomatic off-ramps existed and were not taken.
This month we'll work through the central issues — complex, contested, and unresolved — as honestly and evenhandedly as we can:

• The nuclear question — Was Iran genuinely close to weaponization? American intelligence reported that alleged threats of long-range Iranian ballistic missiles were unfounded, while the IAEA discovered Iran had hidden highly enriched uranium in an underground facility. How do we evaluate competing claims about intent and capability?
• The assassination of Khamenei and regime change — The strikes were said to aim at inducing regime change in Iran and targeting its nuclear and ballistic missile program. Is forcible regime change legitimate under international law? What are the likely second- and third-order consequences?
• The regional spillover — Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel, U.S. bases, and U.S.-allied countries across the region with Hezbollah re-entering the conflict in Lebanon. How far could this spread, and who bears responsibility for escalation?
• Civilian harm and proportionality — At least 1,444 people have been killed and over 18,000 injured in Iran since February 28, with up to 3.2 million people displaced. How do we assess proportionality, and what obligations do combatants have toward civilian populations?
• The Strait of Hormuz and global energy — U.S. forces struck military targets on Kharg Island, a critical hub for Iran's crude exports, while Iran has threatened retaliation against regional oil infrastructure. What are the economic stakes for the world?
• Diplomatic alternatives — The mediating Omani foreign minister had stated significant progress in nuclear talks, with Iran willing to make concessions, but Trump said he was "not thrilled" with the talks. Was war avoidable? What would a durable diplomatic framework have required?
• Domestic politics and war powers — More than 250 U.S. organizations have signed a letter calling on Congress to halt funding for the war, and questions about congressional authorization remain live. What does democratic accountability for war look like?
• International law and the global order — How are other major powers responding? What role, if any, can international institutions play at this stage?